A co-sponsored event, presented by CFA Society New York, the Gabelli Center for Global Security Analysis, and the Museum of American Finance.
Paul Schmelzing will discuss his groundbreaking research on real interest rate dynamics since the beginning of secondary debt markets, the topic of one of his Ph.D. chapters. Visiting U.S. and European archives over multiple years, he reconstructed global real interest rate series that cover 82% of advanced economy gross domestic product (GDP) spanning 700 years, and he argues that our current negative rate environment has actually been in the making for centuries. Schmelzing will explain why investors during the Italian Renaissance could already have predicted that the global economy would hit the “zero lower bound” in our time, why there is no such thing as a “normal” or “steady-state” interest rate, and what chances are the major recent fiscal and monetary stimuli will trigger a structural break from the low inflation, low rate era.
Following the presentation, James Grant and Richard Sylla will lead a discussion on the history of interest rates and will take questions from the audience.